Early Warning System for Anticipatory Action in Agriculture

Author: Dr. Ajit Tyagi, Dr. Nabansu Chattopadhyay, Dr. Mazharul Aziz, Dr. Aruni Abeysekera, Mr. Rameshwar Rimal, Ms. Han Swe, Dr. Someshwar Das, Mihir R. Bhatt, Dr. L.S. Rathore, and Khayal Trivedi

Introduction 

As South Asia faces intensifying climate variability, the importance of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for anticipatory action in agriculture has never been greater. Agriculture remains the backbone of South Asia’s economy and food security, employing a large portion of the population and feeding millions globally. Recognising this urgency, Dr Ajit Tyagi, President of SAMA, convened the panel to bring together expert voices from across the region to assess current systems, identify gaps, and chart a path forward to safeguard agricultural livelihoods in the face of climate uncertainty.

With a large portion of society engaged in agriculture, South Asian countries have, over several decades, built community resilience against extreme weather. The changing policies, technologies, and early warning systems in the region highlight the importance of being proactive in the agricultural sector.

Country Snapshots

Dr. Aruni Abeysekera, Assistant Director of Agriculture at the Agro-Climatology and Climate Change Division, Natural Resources Management Centre, Department of Agriculture in Sri Lanka, pointed out the increasing unpredictability of the tropical monsoon. She stressed that Sri Lanka’s agrometeorological advisories, which include short-term, medium-term, and seasonal forecasts, guide water management, crop planning, and fertilizer use. For instance, changes made during the 2025 Yala season in response to early rains and delayed monsoons resulted in a successful harvest, showing the need for flexible and responsive early warning systems.

Rameshwar Rimal, Technical Officer at the Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC), explained how Nepal is localizing early warning systems by combining impact-based forecasting with automated bulletins at the municipal level. Due to Nepal’s varied terrain, tailored advisories are crucial and are delivered through local governments, SMS, and broadcasting media. The South Asian landscape varies significantly from region to region, resulting in different challenges for early warning systems and proactive measures.

Eastern India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar are especially vulnerable to cyclones. Dr. Mazharul Aziz, an agronomist with expertise in Agrometeorology and Agromet Advisory Services, noted that timely advisories during cyclones like Bulbul, Amphan, and Dana enabled farmers to harvest and save multiple crops. This underscores the necessity for ongoing communication between farming communities and agrometeorological departments. Similarly, Ms. Han Swe from Myanmar emphasized the significance of their national agromet systems, highlighting the role of real-time data sharing, integrated forecasting systems, and the economic advantages of proactive actions.

Extreme Weather, Challenges in Forecasting, and Adaptation

Dr. Nabansu Chattopadhyay, former Deputy Director General of Meteorology at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Pune, mentioned that although strong systems exist, the growing number of extreme weather events is severely affecting agriculture. Monsoon rainfall is becoming heavier, and delayed withdrawal patterns are disrupting planting schedules.

Someshwar Das ji, Secretary of SAMA, pointed out that while weather forecasts rely on real-time data, climate change is making long-term predictions more uncertain, especially in areas with complicated geographies. To tackle these issues, experts suggested creating a centralized data repository and data-sharing platform under SAMA to aid collaborative research, improve regional readiness, enhance long-term forecasts, and guide policy development. Collaboration between multiple institutions, long-term data infrastructure, and the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) in weather forecasting were deemed crucial. Investments in these technologies should support, not replace, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models.

In terms of risk communication, governments and communities need to find the most effective outreach methods and ensure these channels remain open. These methods may include SMS, community radio, mobile apps, and other platforms that promote inclusive warning dissemination. Such adaptation strategies aim not only to protect crops but also to generate economic benefits by minimizing disaster-related losses. However, these initiatives require continuous funding and policy support from governments, private technology companies, and civil society organizations (CSOs).

The Road Ahead: Localised Forecasting and Farmer-Centric Action

Dr. L. S. Rathore, President of SAFOAM and former Director General of the IMD, concluded the panel by emphasising the importance of impact-based forecasting thereby accounting for specific crop physiology and regional vulnerabilities. Dr. Rathore stressed the need for improved training for farmers to enhance their understanding and response. This is a crucial step in building resilience from the ground up.

As climate threats evolve, South Asia must invest in inclusive, technologically advanced, and regionally integrated early warning systems to secure the future of agriculture. While much progress has been made, we need to continue collaboration across countries, institutions, research centres, and communities to protect South Asia’s farming communities, on whom the world depends.

References:

1.     FAO (2025) – Digital Agriculture and AI for Farmers. FAO.org/digital-agriculture

2.     WMO (2024) – Early Warning Systems: Building Global Resilience. WMO.int/topics/early-warning-system

3.     Nature (2025) – AI in Weather Forecasting: GenCast Model Advances. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9

4.     Sri Lanka Dept. of Agriculture (2024) – Agromet Advisory Services. https://doa.gov.lk/agro-met-advisory/

5.     World Bank (2019) – Climate-Smart Agriculture in Nepal. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climate-smart-agriculture

6.     ScienceDirect (2024) – AI vs. NWP in Weather Forecasting. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266659212400091X

“Early warning is not only about predicting the storm; it is about preparing the farmer. The true success of an early warning system lies in how it turns forecasts into food security and fear into foresight.” – Dr. L. S. Rathore, President of SAFOAM and former Director General of the IMD

“Anticipatory action in agriculture is both a science and a social contract. When data meets dignity—when technology listens to the farmer—resilience takes root.” – Mihir R. Bhatt, All India Disaster Mitigation Institute (AIDMI)