Early Warning System for Anticipatory Action in Agriculture

Author: Dr. Ajit Tyagi, Dr. Nabansu Chattopadhyay, Dr. Mazharul Aziz, Dr. Aruni Abeysekera, Mr. Rameshwar Rimal, Ms. Han Swe, Dr. Someshwar Das, Mihir R. Bhatt, Dr. L.S. Rathore, and Khayal Trivedi

Introduction 

As South Asia faces intensifying climate variability, the importance of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for anticipatory action in agriculture has never been greater. Agriculture remains the backbone of South Asia’s economy and food security, employing a large portion of the population and feeding millions globally. Recognising this urgency, Dr Ajit Tyagi, President of SAMA, convened the panel to bring together expert voices from across the region to assess current systems, identify gaps, and chart a path forward to safeguard agricultural livelihoods in the face of climate uncertainty.

With a large portion of society engaged in agriculture, South Asian countries have, over several decades, built community resilience against extreme weather. The evolving policies, technologies, and early warning systems implemented across the region underscore the criticality of anticipatory action in the agricultural sector.

Country Snapshots

Dr Aruni Abeysekera, Assistant Director of Agriculture at the Agro-Climatology and Climate Change Division, Natural Resources Management Centre, Department of Agriculture, Sri Lanka, highlighted the rising unpredictability of the tropical monsoon. She emphasised how Sri Lanka’s agrometeorological advisories—short-term, medium-term, and seasonal-term—guide water management, crop planning, and fertiliser use. For example, adjustments made during the 2025 Yala season in response to early rains and delayed monsoons led to a successful agricultural outcome, underscoring the need for flexible, responsive EWS.

Rameshwar Rimal, Technical Officer at the Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC), described how Nepal is localising EWS by integrating impact-based forecasting and automating municipal-level bulletins. Given Nepal’s diverse terrain, tailored advisories are essential and are delivered through local governments, SMS, and broadcast media.

Because the South Asian landscape varies greatly from region to region, the challenges facing EWS and anticipatory action also differ.

Eastern India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar are particularly prone to cyclones. Dr Mazharul Aziz, an agronomist specialising in Agrometeorology and Agromet Advisory Services, pointed out that thanks to timely advisories during cyclones such as Bulbul, Amphan, and Dana, farmers were able to harvest and save several crops. This highlights the importance of continuous communication between farming communities and agrometeorological departments. Similarly, Ms Han Swe from Myanmar highlighted their national agromet systems and emphasised the role of real-time data sharing, integrated forecasting systems, and the economic benefits of anticipatory action.

Extreme Weather, Challenges in Forecasting, and Adaptation

Dr. Nabansu Chattopadhyay, former Deputy Director General of Meteorology at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, noted that while robust systems are in place, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events is having a devastating impact on agriculture. Monsoon rainfall is becoming more intense, and delayed withdrawal patterns are disrupting planting cycles.

Someshwar Das ji, Secretary of SAMA, emphasised that while weather forecasts are grounded in real-time data, climate change is making long-term projections increasingly uncertain—particularly in regions with complex geographies. To adapt to these challenges, experts called for the establishment of a centralised data repository and data-sharing platform under SAMA to support collaborative research, enhance regional preparedness, improve long-term forecasting, and inform policy formulation. Multi-institutional collaboration, long-term data infrastructure, and the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) for weather forecasting were identified as essential. Investments in these technologies should complement, not replace, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models.

In terms of risk communication, governments and communities must also identify the most effective modes of outreach and ensure these channels remain active. These may include SMS, community radio, mobile apps, and other platforms that support inclusive dissemination of warnings. Such adaptation strategies aim not only to protect crops but also to generate economic benefits by reducing disaster-related losses. However, these efforts require sustained funding and policy support from governments, private tech companies, and civil society organisations (CSOs).

The Road Ahead: Localised Forecasting and Farmer-Centric Action

Dr. L. S. Rathore, President of SAFOAM and former Director General of the IMD, concluded the panel by emphasising the importance of impact-based forecasting that accounts for specific crop physiology and regional vulnerabilities. He stressed the need for improved training for farmers to enhance their understanding and response to advisories—an essential step in building resilience from the ground up.

As climate threats evolve, South Asia must invest in inclusive, technologically advanced, and regionally integrated early warning systems to secure the future of agriculture. While much progress has been made, continued collaboration across countries, institutions, research centres, and communities is essential to protect South Asia’s farming communities, on whom the world depends.

References:

1.     FAO (2025) – Digital Agriculture and AI for Farmers. FAO.org/digital-agriculture

2.     WMO (2024) – Early Warning Systems: Building Global Resilience. WMO.int/topics/early-warning-system

3.     Nature (2025) – AI in Weather Forecasting: GenCast Model Advances. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9

4.     Sri Lanka Dept. of Agriculture (2024) – Agromet Advisory Services. https://doa.gov.lk/agro-met-advisory/

5.     World Bank (2019) – Climate-Smart Agriculture in Nepal. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climate-smart-agriculture

6.     ScienceDirect (2024) – AI vs. NWP in Weather Forecasting. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266659212400091X

“Early warning is not only about predicting the storm; it is about preparing the farmer. The true success of an early warning system lies in how it turns forecasts into food security and fear into foresight.” – Dr. L. S. Rathore, President of SAFOAM and former Director General of the IMD

“Anticipatory action in agriculture is both a science and a social contract. When data meets dignity—when technology listens to the farmer—resilience takes root.” – Mihir R. Bhatt, All India Disaster Mitigation Institute (AIDMI)